Astutus Research has published its July 2026 quarterly update on vehicle kilometres travelled (VKMT) across 26 European countries. VKMT measures the total distance driven by light vehicles, and it underpins demand for fuel, tires and servicing.
Driving Stalled in Q1 and Likely Fell in Q2
- Q1 2026: VKMT grew 0.1%, as a March decline offset gains in January and February.
- Q2 2026: Astutus estimates a decline of just under 1%.
- Full-year 2026: Astutus forecasts growth of 0.2%, against 1.3% before the conflict. The gap equals around 45 billion VKMT.
Fuel Prices and Confidence Shape Tire Replacement
Fuel prices remain about 10% above pre-conflict levels. The European Commission has cut its 2026 EU growth forecast to 1.1%. Consumer confidence fell in Q2 and partly recovered in June.
The update compares this episode with earlier crises and shows how each affected tire replacement cycles.
What Is in the Full Report
The eight-page update also covers the H2 2026 outlook, public transport trends, and the methodology and data sources for every country. Open the full report below, or download the PDF to keep.
