Geopolitical shocks don’t stop at borders. They ripple through fuel markets, household budgets, and ultimately how far Europeans drive. The conflict in the Middle East is already reshaping fuel prices, inflation expectations, and economic forecasts across Europe.
Astutus Research has rapidly assessed how these pressures translate into changes in Miles Driven (VKMT), with knock‑on effects for passenger car and light commercial tire demand. Drawing on fuel price data, macroeconomic revisions, and historical crisis patterns, this briefing cuts through the noise to quantify real‑world impacts.
Whether you’re planning volumes, managing risk, or reassessing 2026 expectations, this analysis shows where, when, and how VKMT is most exposed — including scenario‑based outcomes depending on how long hostilities persist.
Use this briefing to pressure‑test forecasts, align commercial plans, and respond faster to a rapidly evolving external shock.