China’s share of EU27+UK passenger and light-truck tire imports fell to 58.1% in the first five months of 2026, down from 71.8% a year earlier — a shift that happened largely before Brussels’ definitive anti-dumping duties on Chinese-made tires took effect on 8 July. Within the EU27 alone, excluding the UK, China’s share stood at roughly 51% over the same period, after first-quarter volumes had already fallen 57% year-on-year as importers cleared stock built up ahead of the ruling.
Read as a headline number, that looks like the duties working exactly as intended. The timing doesn’t support that story: most of the shift happened before the duties existed, as importers adjusted sourcing in anticipation rather than in response.
The Duty Structure, In Brief
The European Commission’s ruling, published 7 July, set duties on Chinese-origin passenger-car and light-truck tires at three tiers: 4.3% for Hankook’s China-based operation, 24.4% for other producers — a category that includes the China plants of Pirelli, Goodyear, Continental and Sumitomo Rubber — and 45.3% for Shandong Yongsheng Rubber Group, one of only two producers the Commission selected for its official sample, whose submitted data the complainant disputed. The same 45.3% rate also applies as the residual duty for any Chinese producer the regulation doesn’t name individually. The duties took effect 8 July for an initial five-year term, covering imports the Commission found were entering at dumped prices and causing material injury, particularly in the budget “tier 3” segment. The scope is large: Chinese-origin tires made up roughly 28% of the EU tire market, about 93 million units worth €2.5bn in 2024. A parallel EU anti-subsidy investigation on the same products is ongoing and due to conclude by December 2026.
The US runs a separate, parallel track on the same Chinese-tire trade tension. A July review of Thai-made tires split two tracked manufacturers with production in Thailand: Sentury Tire was found to have sold below normal value, Sumitomo Rubber’s Thai operation was not — setting different assessment rates for otherwise similar regional exposure.
Where the Volume Went
Trade data covering January–May 2026 — measured across the EU27 plus the UK — shows where the displaced Chinese share landed. ASEAN suppliers nearly tripled their combined share of EU27+UK tire imports, from 7.6% to 19.9%. Thailand’s exports rose 156% to 6 million units, Vietnam’s rose 130% to more than 3 million, and Cambodia moved from a near-zero base to 2.3 million units. Astutus Research’s own Q2 2026 ETRMA update, published in August, tracked the same shift and reached the same conclusion: much of the change had already unwound by the time the duties took effect.
Relocation, Not Retreat
Some of that ASEAN volume is understood to originate from factories Chinese tire manufacturers already own and operate in Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia — plants that were already up and running well before January 2026, which is what let them absorb volume that quickly. A newer wave of Chinese-backed capacity is also moving into export-oriented free zones through 2026 — Egypt most visibly, but also Morocco, where Guizhou Tyre cleared Chinese regulatory approval in August for a planned $298.7m, six-million-tire plant at Tangier Tech City; Moroccan-side approvals and construction are still ahead. That newer capacity can’t explain volumes already shipped by May, but it points toward the same relocation trend continuing. A tire made outside China avoids this specific EU duty once it legitimately qualifies for the new country’s origin under EU rules — production shifted mainly to sidestep a trade measure can draw additional scrutiny, so the move isn’t a guaranteed or permanent way around EU trade defenses.
That reframes the 58% figure. It’s a real shift in where tires get physically made, and an evidently pre-emptive one. How much it changes which companies ultimately supply the European market is a separate question the trade data alone doesn’t answer.
Early Signs at the Till
One trade-press investigation, published 12 September, looked for early consumer-price effects and didn’t come back with a clean answer. Tracking a Norauto entry-level tire in France, it documented a 7.3% price rise over two weeks — from €40.90 to €43.90 — but the price-comparison service it cited said there wasn’t yet enough evidence to establish “a direct link between the recent EU measures and changes in consumer-facing prices,” and the retailer’s parent company didn’t respond to the outlet’s questions. The same piece modeled a separate, hypothetical scenario — an entry-level tire at the maximum 45.3% duty tier moving from roughly €61 to €88 — by applying the duty rate directly to the retail price, which isn’t how the duty is actually calculated (it applies to the customs value of the import, a smaller base than the shelf price). Treat both figures as one outlet’s early, unverified read, not a settled effect.
What It Means for Trade-Flow Forecasting
For anyone forecasting demand or mapping trade flows, country-of-origin statistics are starting to diverge from country-of-ownership — and that gap matters more than the headline share number. A tire built in Cambodia by a Chinese-owned factory clears EU customs as Cambodian, not Chinese, even though the commercial relationship — and much of the pricing power — may not have moved at all.
Astutus Research’s European Tire Trade Database tracks country-of-origin trade flows and, where ownership is disclosed, the corporate structure behind relocated capacity — so the two don’t get conflated when a jurisdiction’s import share moves.
FAQ
What are the EU’s anti-dumping duty rates on Chinese tires?
Three tiers, effective 8 July 2026 for five years: 4.3% for Hankook’s China-based operation, 24.4% for other producers (including the China plants of Pirelli, Goodyear, Continental and Sumitomo Rubber), and 45.3% for Shandong Yongsheng Rubber Group — also the residual rate applied to any Chinese producer the regulation doesn’t name individually.
Is China actually losing the EU tire market?
Its recorded EU27+UK import share fell from 71.8% to 58.1% in a year, but most of that decline happened before the July duties took effect, as importers shifted sourcing and cleared pre-duty stock. Some of the volume is understood to have moved to ASEAN-based factories Chinese manufacturers already operate — a relocation of where tires are made, not necessarily a loss of underlying market control.
Which countries gained the most import share?
Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia, within EU27+UK tire imports. Thailand’s exports rose 156% to 6 million units, Vietnam’s rose 130% to over 3 million, and Cambodia went from near zero to 2.3 million units.
Are these duties raising consumer prices?
One trade-press investigation found a 7.3% two-week price rise on a single budget tire, but the price-comparison service it cited said it couldn’t yet establish a direct link to the duties — so this remains an open question, not a confirmed effect.
When does the related EU anti-subsidy investigation conclude?
It’s due to conclude by December 2026, covering the same product scope as the anti-dumping duties.
Sources
Astutus Research weekly tire market intelligence reports, weeks of 13 July, 20 July, 17 August and 14 September 2026; Astutus Research’s own Q2 2026 ETRMA update (12 August 2026).
European Commission (regulation text) and Tire Business (EU ruling, rates and scope); European Rubber Journal (China/ASEAN trade-flow data, 10 Aug 2026 — EU27+UK scope); Morocco World News, Ecofin Agency and Hespress (Guizhou Tyre Morocco plant); Federal Register (US Thailand anti-dumping review, 20 Jul 2026); Car Revs Daily (consumer-price investigation, 12 Sep 2026 — single-source, see reviewer notes).
